Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, and Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, Rwanda launched a national program to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aim to assess the impact of the program to date and identify strategies to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to simulate Rwanda's HCV epidemic from 2015 through 2050 and evaluated temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and the total cost of care for scenarios that could achieve HCV elimination by 2030. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened for HCV, and 60 000 were treated. The study projected that Rwanda could achieve HCV elimination as early as 2027. A feasible strategy of an annual screening rate of 15% and a treatment rate of 100% would achieve all World Health Organization elimination goals by 2028, requiring screening an additional 4 million people and treating 23 900 patients by 2030. The elimination strategy costs $25 million for screening and diagnosis and $21 million for treatment from 2015 to 2050. The national program would avert 4900 hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 6700 HCV-related deaths and save the health system $25.33 million from 2015 to 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Rwanda is poised to become one of the first countries in the world to eliminate HCV. Rwanda's program serves as a blueprint for other countries in the African region. By rapid screening and treatment scale-up (eg, by leveraging HIV platforms) and by drug price negotiations, HCV elimination is not only feasible but can be cost-saving in low-income settings.

Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030. METHODS: This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030. RESULTS: Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save >$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts. CONCLUSIONS: HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.

Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths With Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 US States.

Importance: In 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs). Objective: To estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model simulated the opioid epidemic in the 4 states participating in the HCS (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) from 2020 to 2026. Participants were a simulated population transitioning from opioid misuse to opioid use disorder (OUD), overdose, treatment, and relapse. The model was calibrated using 2015 to 2020 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other sources for each state. The model accounts for reduced initiation of medications for OUD (MOUDs) and increased OODs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Exposure: Increasing MOUD initiation by 2- or 5-fold, improving MOUD retention to the rates achieved in clinical trial settings, increasing naloxone distribution efforts, and furthering safe opioid prescribing. An initial 2-year duration of interventions was simulated, with potential sustainment for up to 3 additional years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected reduction in number of OODs under different combinations and durations of sustainment of interventions. Results: Compared with the status quo, the estimated annual reduction in OODs at the end of the second year of interventions was 13% to 17% in Kentucky, 17% to 27% in Massachusetts, 15% to 22% in New York, and 15% to 22% in Ohio. Sustaining all interventions for an additional 3 years was estimated to reduce the annual number of OODs at the end of the fifth year by 18% to 27% in Kentucky, 28% to 46% in Massachusetts, 22% to 34% in New York, and 25% to 41% in Ohio. The longer the interventions were sustained, the better the outcomes; however, these positive gains would be washed out if interventions were not sustained. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study of the opioid epidemic in 4 US states, sustained implementation of interventions, including increased delivery of MOUDs and naloxone supply, was found to be needed to reduce OODs and prevent deaths from increasing again.

Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions.

Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission. Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs. Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs. Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022. Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges. Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Core Antigen-Based Rapid Diagnostic Test for Hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects 58 million worldwide and > 79% of people remain undiagnosed. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for HCV can help improve diagnosis and treatment rates. Nevertheless, the high price and infrastructure needed to use current molecular HCV RDT options present a barrier to widespread use-particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated the performance and cost-effectiveness of a theoretical core antigen (cAg) RDT for HCV viremia confirmation, which requires fewer resources. METHODS: We adapted a previously validated microsimulation model to simulate HCV disease progression and outcomes under different HCV testing algorithms in Georgia and Malaysia. We compared standard of care testing with laboratory-based ribonucleic acid HCV to a cAg-based RDT for HCV confirmation. We simulated a cohort of 10 000 adults in each country, with an HCV-ribonucleic acid prevalence of 5.40% in Georgia and 1.54% in Malaysia. We projected the cumulative healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and diagnosis coverage rates over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Compared with the standard of care testing, the cAg-based RDT would increase quality-adjusted life-years by 270 in Georgia and 259 in Malaysia per 10 000 people. The high diagnosis rate and treatment rate of the cAg-based RDT result in substantial cost savings because of averted HCV sequelae management costs. Cost savings are $281 000 for Georgia and $781 000 for Malaysia. CONCLUSIONS: We found that a cAg-based RDT for HCV could improve the diagnosis rate and result in cost savings. Such a test could have a substantial impact on the feasibility and cost of HCV elimination.

Feasibility, effectiveness and cost of a decentralized HCV care model among the general population in Delhi, India.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: India has a significant burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and has committed to achieving national elimination by 2030. This will require a substantial scale-up in testing and treatment. The "HEAD-Start Project Delhi" aimed to enhance HCV diagnosis and treatment pathways among the general population. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted at 5 district hospitals (Arm 1: one-stop shop), 15 polyclinics (Arm 2: referral for viral load (VL) testing and treatment) and 62 screening camps (Arm 3: referral for treatment). HCV prevalence, retention in the HCV care cascade, and turn-around time were measured. RESULTS: Between January and September 2019, 37 425 participants were screened for HCV. The median (IQR) age of participants was 35 (26-48) years, with 50.4% male and 49.6% female. A significantly higher proportion of participants in Arm 1 (93.7%) and Arm 3 (90.3%) received a VL test compared with Arm 2 (52.5%, P < .001). Of those confirmed positive, treatment was initiated at significantly higher rates for participants in both Arms 1 (85.6%) and 2 (73.7%) compared to Arm 3 (41.8%, P < .001). Arm 1 was found to be a cost-saving strategy compared to Arm 2, Arm 3, and no action. CONCLUSIONS: Delivery of all services at a single site (district hospitals) resulted in a higher yield of HCV seropositive cases and retention compared with sites where participants were referred elsewhere for VL testing and/or treatment. The highest level of retention in the care cascade was also associated with the shortest turn-around times.

Assessing the impact of simplified HCV care on linkage to care amongst high-risk patients at primary healthcare clinics in Malaysia: a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: To achieve the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV), substantial scale-up in access to testing and treatment is needed. This will require innovation and simplification of the care pathway, through decentralisation of testing and treatment to primary care settings and task-shifting to non-specialists. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of decentralisation of HCV testing and treatment using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in primary healthcare clinics (PHCs) among high-risk populations, with referral of seropositive patients for confirmatory viral load testing and treatment. METHODS: This observational study was conducted between December 2018 and October 2019 at 25 PHCs in three regions in Malaysia. Each PHC was linked to one or more hospitals, for referral of seropositive participants for confirmatory testing and pretreatment evaluation. Treatment was provided in PHCs for non-cirrhotic patients and at hospitals for cirrhotic patients. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 15 366 adults were screened at the 25 PHCs, using RDTs for HCV antibodies. Of the 2020 (13.2%) HCV antibody-positive participants, 1481/2020 (73.3%) had a confirmatory viral load test, 1241/1481 (83.8%) were HCV RNA-positive, 991/1241 (79.9%) completed pretreatment assessment, 632/991 (63.8%) initiated treatment, 518/632 (82.0%) completed treatment, 352/518 (68.0%) were eligible for a sustained virological response (SVR) cure assessment, 209/352 (59.4%) had an SVR cure assessment, and SVR was achieved in 202/209 (96.7%) patients. A significantly higher proportion of patients referred to PHCs initiated treatment compared with those who had treatment initiated at hospitals (71.0% vs 48.8%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the effectiveness and feasibility of a simplified decentralised HCV testing and treatment model in primary healthcare settings, targeting high-risk groups in Malaysia. There were good outcomes across most steps of the cascade of care when treatment was provided at PHCs compared with hospitals.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C testing pathways in Georgia using the Hep C Testing Calculator.

The cost of testing can be a substantial contributor to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination program costs in many low- and middle-income countries such as Georgia, resulting in the need for innovative and cost-effective strategies for testing. Our objective was to investigate the most cost-effective testing pathways for scaling-up HCV testing in Georgia. We developed a Markov-based model with a lifetime horizon that simulates the natural history of HCV, and the cost of detection and treatment of HCV. We then created an interactive online tool that uses results from the Markov-based model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different HCV testing pathways. We compared the current standard-of-care (SoC) testing pathway and four innovative testing pathways for Georgia. The SoC testing was cost-saving compared to no testing, but all four new HCV testing pathways further increased QALYs and decreased costs. The pathway with the highest patient follow-up, due to on-site testing, resulted in the highest discounted QALYs (123 QALY more than the SoC) and lowest costs ($127,052 less than the SoC) per 10,000 persons screened. The current testing algorithm in Georgia can be replaced with a new pathway that is more effective while being cost-saving.

Costs and Consequences of Eliminating a Routine, Point-Of-Care HIV Screening Program in a High-Prevalence Jail.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to assess the public health impact of eliminating a longstanding routine HIV screening program and replacing it with targeted testing. In addition, costs, outcomes, and cost effectiveness of routine screening are compared with those of targeted testing in the Fulton County Jail, Atlanta, Georgia. METHODS: A published mathematical model was used to assess the cost effectiveness and public health impact of routine screening (March 2013-February 2014) compared with those of targeted testing (January 2018-December 2018) from a health system perspective. Costs, outcomes, and other model inputs were derived from the testing programs and the published literature, and the cost effectiveness analysis was conducted from 2019 to 2020. RESULTS: Routine screening identified 74 more new HIV infections over 1 year than targeted testing, resulting in an estimated 10 HIV transmissions averted and 45 quality-adjusted life-years saved, and was cost saving. The missed opportunity to diagnose infections because routine screening was eliminated resulted in an estimated 8.4 additional HIV transmissions and $3.7 million in additional costs to the healthcare system. CONCLUSIONS: Routine HIV screening in high-prevalence jails is cost effective and has a larger impact on public health than targeted testing. Prioritizing sustained funding for routine, jail-based HIV screening programs in high-prevalence areas may be important to realizing the national HIV prevention goals.

Assessment of Incidence of and Surveillance Burden for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Patients With Hepatitis C in the Era of Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents.

Importance: In the US, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), primarily associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, is the fastest rising cause of cancer-related death. Wider use of highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) substantially reduces the burden of chronic HCV infection, but the subsequent impacts with HCV-associated HCC remain unknown. Objective: To assess projected changes in the incidence rate of and surveillance burden for HCC in the era of DAA treatment for HCV. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model study was performed from January 2019 to February 2020, using an individual-level state-transition simulation model to simulate disease progression, screening, and different waves of antiviral treatments for HCV in the US from 2012 to 2040. Interventions: Current clinical management for chronic HCV infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model outcomes were projected temporal trends and age distribution of incident HCC cases and candidates for HCC surveillance among patients with viremia and patients with virologically cured HCV. Results: The simulation model projected that the annual incidence of HCC among patients with viremia and patients with virologically cured HCV will continue increasing to 24 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 18 000-31 000) cases until 2021. In patients with virologically cured HCV, incident HCC cases are projected to increase from 1000 (95% UI, 500-2100) in 2012 to the peak of 7000 (95% UI, 5000-9600) in 2031 with a subsequent decrease to 6000 (95% UI, 4300-8300) by 2040. The proportion of incident HCC cases that occur in individuals with virologically cured HCV is estimated to increase from 5.3% in 2012 to 45.8% in 2040. The number of candidates for HCC surveillance in the population with virologically cured HCV is projected to increase from 106 000 (95% UI, 70 000-178 000) in 2012 to the peak of 649 000 (95% UI, 512 000-824 000) in 2030 and decrease to 539 000 (95% UI, 421 000-687 000) by 2040, while the proportion of all candidates for surveillance who are virologically cured is estimated to increase from 8.5% to 64.6% during the same period. The average age of HCC incidence and surveillance candidates is estimated to increase from 55 in 2012 to 72 and 71, respectively, by 2040. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that the burden of HCC will shift from patients with viremia to patients with virologically cured HCV, and to older populations. Appropriate management may be warranted for early detection of HCC in patients who may no longer be receiving specialty care for liver conditions.

Funding Hepatitis C Treatment in Correctional Facilities by Using a Nominal Pricing Mechanism.

The cost of treating all incarcerated people who have hepatitis C with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) greatly stresses correctional facility budgets. Complex federal laws bar pharmaceutical companies from simply discounting expensive medications to prices that facilities can afford. This article discusses means by which correctional facilities may qualify under federal law as "safety-net providers" to allow sale of DAAs at a price <10% of the average manufacturer price (AMP). No new laws would need to be enacted to implement this strategy. Using fiscal year 2018 pricing data from the Georgia Department of Corrections, we derived an estimate for the AMP and then used this estimate to calculate a nominal price. The United States would save ∼$3 billion if manufacturers sold DAAs at a nominal price to correctional facilities. Use of this strategy would help solve the conundrum of how state and county governments can pay for hepatitis C treatment and would ultimately save money for society.

Five Questions Concerning Managing Hepatitis C in the Justice System: Finding Practical Solutions for Hepatitis C Virus Elimination.

An estimated 30% of Americans with hepatitis C virus (HCV) pass through a jail or prison annually. One in 7 incarcerated persons is viremic. Screening and treatment is cost-effective and beneficial to society as a whole. Yet at current (2018) levels of funding for HCV management, prisons are not aggressively seeking cases; few incarcerated persons with HCV actually receive treatment. This article explores barriers to screening for and treating hepatitis C in state prisons, and ways that states may overcome these barriers, such as nominal pricing. While high prices for direct-acting antivirals discourage treatment, potential strategies exist to lower prices.